Just like that, the second NFL Sunday of the season is in the books. I hope it was a profitable one for you if you bet.
Today's legendary investor guidance is from Stanley Druckenmiller. He managed roughly $12 billion during the peak of his hedge fund career, and he is perhaps most famous for never having a negative year during his nearly 30 years at the helm of Duquesne Capital Management.
In Druckenmiller's words:
"One of my most important jobs as a money manager was to understand whether I was hot or cold. Life goes in streaks and like a hitter in baseball, sometimes a money manager is seeing the ball and sometimes they’re not. If you’re managing money, you must know whether you’re cold or hot, and in my opinion, when you’re cold, you should be trying for bunts. You shouldn’t be swinging for the fences."
The Link to Serious Sports Betting
This advice is crystal clear: when thigs aren't going well, scale back.
Low Stress Takeaways
- Audit yourself: At any point in time, refer to your bet tracking data that says whether you are cold or hot and then adjust from there. If you don't already have a bet tracker, grab this tracker from the LSB community.
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You ARE managing money: If you're reading this, you take sports betting seriously. That means every dollar you bet is your money. There is no money more important to manage than your money. Adopt this mindset accordingly.
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What does a bunt look like? That looks different for everyone but here are some ideas:
- Scale the dollar value of each bet back by 90%. This will help focus on simply being correct instead of trying to make a massive return. Bunting builds confidence by putting the bat on the ball. Do this enough times and it will be time to take larger swings before you know it.
- Drop a multi-sport focus and concentrate on one sport and one market within the sport at a time. Again, it's a question of building confidence and focusing on a narrow area is an easy way to do it.
Thank you for reading this edition of the Low Stress Bets Memo. Reply directly to this email with any thoughts, questions, or feedback—I read every response.
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Low Stress Bets focuses on mental models, risk management, and psychology for the serious sports bettor.
