Low Stress Bets Newsletter
Low Stress Bets focuses on mental models, risk management, and psychology for the serious sports bettor
Low Stress Bets Memo #10- September 30, 2026
Everyone has their own version of it: that one bet that came agonizingly close.Â
Maybe you remember it because it was for a massive potential profit. Maybe you remember it because it almost proved your thesis was right.
Regardless of the reason, that "near miss" sticks in your brain for a specifi...
Sep 30, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #7- September 23, 2026
What’s the single best sports bet you’ve ever made? More importantly: How many times have you been able to repeat that success?
If replicating that win feels like trying to find a needle in a haystack, your brain might be falling for the representativeness heuristic.
This mental shortcut causes t...
Sep 23, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #6- September 21, 2026
Just like that, the second NFL Sunday of the season is in the books. I hope it was a profitable one for you if you bet.Â
Today's legendary investor guidance is from Stanley Druckenmiller. He managed roughly $12 billion during the peak of his hedge fund career, and he is perhaps most famous for ne...
Sep 21, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #5- September 18, 2026
With week 2 of the NFL upon us, how can we get better? There's a balancing act between emotional engagement and decision quality. Finding that sweet spot is what unlocks process-driven decision making that is low stress.
Enter the Yerkes-Dodson Law:
This curve maps human performance against arou...
Sep 18, 2026
behavioral economics
decision science
nfl risk management
tilt prevention
yerkes-dodson law
Low Stress Bets Community is Live
As promised, the Low Stress Bets Community is officially live.
This is a dedicated, process-oriented workspace built for serious bettors who treat sports markets like a long-term portfolio—not a noisy gambling forum.
Your first 30 days are 100% free so you can test drive the tools, sign up for...
Sep 15, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #4- September 14, 2026
Just like that, the first NFL Sunday of the season is in the books. I hope it was a profitable one for you if you bet. Now that the season is underway, let's consider how to keep having success all the way through Super Bowl Sunday (which is also Valentine's Day- you're welcome for the reminder f...
Sep 14, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #3- September 11, 2026
If you're reading this, you have some level of financial literacy. Maybe you watch the stock market on TV, studied it in school, keep up with it on social media, or a combination of all three. It's likely you maintain a retirement account, keep savings, and invest for the future.
From my perspect...
Sep 11, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #2- September 9, 2026
In his 1990 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett quoted philosopher Bertrand Russell: "Most men would rather die than think. Many do."
Six years later, Hank Williams, Jr. asked a question that has also stood the test of time:Â
The NFL is back tonight. At 8:20 ET on NBC, the ...
Sep 09, 2026
Low Stress Bets Memo #1- September 7, 2026
Before we dive in, let’s talk about Charlie Munger.Â
Before his passing in 2023 at age 99, Munger built an estimated net worth over $2 billion. He graduated from Harvard Law School without an undergraduate degree, spent decades alongside his best friend Warren Buffett as the chief architect of Be...
Sep 07, 2026
Low Stress Reset
Over the past two years, I tested a theory that betting on high-probability sporting events could consistently generate returns that beat the S&P 500. I learned that that's a tough game to play.
Starting today, Low Stress Bets is moving in a new direction.
I'm shifting my entire focus to mental m...
Sep 05, 2026
