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Everyone has their own version of it: that one bet that came agonizingly close.  Maybe you remember it because it was for a massive potential profit. Maybe you remember it because it almost proved your thesis was right. Regardless of the reason, that "near miss" sticks in your brain for a specific behavioral reason: Deprival-Superreaction Tendency  This mental model highlights two human cogniti...

What’s the single best sports bet you’ve ever made? More importantly: How many times have you been able to repeat that success? If replicating that win feels like trying to find a needle in a haystack, your brain might be falling for the representativeness heuristic. This mental shortcut causes the mind to estimate the probability of an outcome based on how closely it resembles a past memory or...

Just like that, the second NFL Sunday of the season is in the books. I hope it was a profitable one for you if you bet.  Today's legendary investor guidance is from Stanley Druckenmiller. He managed roughly $12 billion during the peak of his hedge fund career, and he is perhaps most famous for never having a negative year during his nearly 30 years at the helm of Duquesne Capital Management.  I...