In his 1990 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett quoted philosopher Bertrand Russell: "Most men would rather die than think. Many do."
Six years later, Hank Williams, Jr. asked a question that has also stood the test of time:
The NFL is back tonight. At 8:20 ET on NBC, the New England Patriots face the Seattle Seahawks.
This is the perfect time to revisit Buffett's direct quotation and remind yourself how the brain works before placing your first NFL wager of the season.
The Links to Serious Sports Betting
1) Buffett's use of "Most men would rather die than think. Many do." makes it clear that people often default to laziness, following trends instead of doing the work to learn.
What does this have to do with sports betting?
Many people want to have a strong perspective on the first game of the season, but it's extremely difficult to have an accurate view with very limited knowledge of the current version of the team. Preseason is next to useless to gauge anything.
For example, neither Drake Maye nor A.J. Brown (starting QB and WR for New England) played during the preseason, so how can we gauge any connection between those two?
2) Charlie Munger has two mental models to describe this quote in more depth:
Doubt avoidance tendency
Inconsistency avoidance tendency
-Doubt avoidance tendency dictates that the human brain is programmed to quickly remove doubt by reaching some decision. Usually, some combination of puzzlement and stress cause this.
Once that sets in, inconsistency avoidance can join the party because the brain conserves space by resisting change. Previous conclusions, loyalties, reputation, commitments, and accepted role in civilization also play into this.
Here's what this means for tonight: you've been waiting seven months to bet the NFL and you don't have much information to work off of for the first game of the season, but you want to bet something. Once your brain makes some decision on a bet (doubt avoidance tendency), it requires even more energy to change it, causing you to most likely find a reason to love your bet (inconsistency avoidance tendency) even though it was made with incomplete information.
Low Stress Takeaway
What's the best course of action for tonight? Do nothing.
Recognize that doubt avoidance tendency wants your brain to reach some conclusion about the game, not necessarily a correct conclusion. That's why making a bet feels so good- because some decision has been made.
Doing nothing means being patient for another week so that you can learn about teams before placing a bet on them. Enjoy the games tonight, Friday, and all weekend, then come back next week ready to go for week 2.
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